The Numbers Behind the Demographic Wall
By 2030, one in four Canadians will be over 65. The working-age population (15–64) will shrink from 64 % today to 60 % by 2035. Immigration fills the gap temporarily, but productivity gains are required to sustain growth.
| Indicator | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 (proj.) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of population 65+ | 19 % | 22 % | 25 % | Statistics Canada 91-520-X |
| Labour-force growth | 1.2 % | 0.7 % | 0.4 % | PBO |
| Immigration inflow (000s) | 400 | 500 | 480 | IRCC |
Implications for Business
- Persistent labour shortages in healthcare, construction, logistics.
- Higher wage inflation (4 %+ annual).
- Rising demand for automation, flexible work, and inclusive hiring.
What Leaders Can Do
- Automate routine tasks. Robotics and AI in warehousing, manufacturing, and back-office work can offset labour decline.
- Design age-inclusive workplaces. Modify ergonomics, benefits, and roles for senior workers.
- Leverage global talent mobility. Use remote work across borders; Canada’s digital visa regime enables cross-border hiring.
- Invest in workforce analytics. Model internal demographics to pre-empt succession gaps.
Arcus Insight: Demographics are destiny only if leaders ignore them. Those who treat labour planning as strategic capital allocation will thrive in a shrinking-talent world.