CEO Strategic Leadership Series
Financial Services
Commercial lending across North America is facing a structural mispricing crisis. Most credit models still rely on assumptions built before the pandemic, before inflation shock, before supply-chain restructuring, and before the hybrid-work real-estate correction.
As a result, banks are increasingly exposed to hidden risk — not because borrowers are weaker, but because reality has changed while underwriting frameworks have not.
Key failures in current commercial credit models include:
• Underestimating supply-chain volatility
• Outdated cashflow assumptions
• Misaligned collateral valuation (especially CRE)
• Incomplete climate and carbon risk integration
• Overreliance on historical performance
• Insufficient scenario stress testing
The commercial real-estate market, in particular, is quietly destabilizing balance sheets. Office vacancy levels in major US metros are structurally high. Canadian secondary markets face similar risk, with rising refinancing pressure and declining valuations.
Banks must redesign credit models around forward-looking risk: operational resilience, labour dynamics, climate exposure, technology adoption, and capital intensity.
How Arcus Can Help
Arcus rebuilds commercial credit frameworks, integrates modern risk factors, and designs forward-looking lending models aligned with post-2020 economic realities.
Next step: Engage Arcus for a Credit Model Modernization Review to future-proof your underwriting.
Arcus offers clients a unique combination of fact-based industry knowledge and superior functional expertise. Our consultants have an average of over 22 years experience, twice the industry average. Find out more about our growth, change management and operations services.
At Arcus we believe that a strategy is only as good as the results it delivers. Strategic outcomes are most predictable and effective when companies develop a portfolio of initiatives that are aligned with core competencies and aligned activities enable the company to offer a superior value proposition.
Please contact Arcus for case studies and to discuss how we can help you.
Service coverage
The variety, breadth, and depth of the projects where Arcus can be a resource are made unique by each client’s specific needs. By providing a very small sample of projects we’ve completed, we can help you understand how and when to use our services. Visit the links below to find out more about a specific problem or opportunity you would like to address.
Below is a sample of the range of services that Arcus has provided to clients.
- A survey of 2,350 consumers and 1,320 business leaders for feedback on sustainability trends
- Architecting a multi-year change strategy for a Fortune 500 company
- Mentoring a CEO on organizational change
- Excellence transformation of a leading B2B services company
- Creating a new sales deployment model for a healthcare company
- Developing a position evaluation and compensation model for a professional medical association
- Improving services to customer segments by deepening their understanding of customer attitudes
“Arcus manages to consistently deliver tangible results on market research and strategy projects. They combine deep business expertise, powerful research capabilities, and innovative thinking to deliver substantial value.”
– Vice President, Nikon
Data Dashboards
- Empower your decision-making with comprehensive, trusted data.
- Gain actionable insights with access to real-time Canadian consumer, business and sector spending and location data.
- Inform economic policy, investments, sales deployment and strategic plans by looking at trends across different industries and regions in Canada.
- Influence your businesses’ future growth plans by understanding consumer behaviour
Media Coverage
Arcus has been quoted extensively in media on a range of topics and can offer research studies, insights and ideas. Here are some examples from the Globe and Mail, BNN, CTV, Global TV and others.
- Federal budget – Canada’s GDP and Canadian businesses – BNN
- Economies are on different tracks: USMCA renegotiations – BNN
- Klarna on the evolution of digital payment tech – BNN
- Canada’s retail sector round up – BNN
- Buy now, pay later will become a $950M industry in Canada – BNN
- Nordstrom countdown to opening begins – Toronto Star
- No lineups outside stores in five years – BNN
- Black Friday retail, marketing, and cross-border shopping trends – BNN
- Does global expansion need a local flavour? – Globe and Mail
- Art of the Pitch – Protect company’s interests when approaching giants – Globe and Mail
- Off-the-shelf technology or a custom design? – Globe and Mail