The new northern frontier
Melting sea routes, mineral access, and strategic geography are transforming the Arctic from isolation to opportunity. The region’s GDP could exceed $100 billion by 2035, driven by critical minerals, shipping, and defense.
| Sector | Current GDP Contribution ($ bn) | 2035 Potential ($ bn) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mining & energy | 26 | 55 | NRCan 2025 |
| Shipping & logistics | 3 | 14 | Transport Canada |
| Defense & infrastructure | 6 | 22 | DND 2025 |
The strategic calculus
- Arctic routes could shorten Asia–Europe transit by 40%.
- Sovereignty infrastructure — ports, telecoms, and housing — lags demand.
- Indigenous partnerships are essential for legitimacy and talent.
What leaders can do
- Invest early in Arctic supply chains. Infrastructure is the bottleneck.
- Support Indigenous joint ventures. Align economic and social value.
- Adopt extreme-environment technologies. From modular housing to microgrids.
- Engage in Arctic policy dialogue. Influence security and sustainability frameworks.
Arcus Insight: The Arctic is Canada’s next strategic region — a test of sovereignty, sustainability, and innovation.