The new global map
Geopolitics has redrawn trade flows. Between 2018 and 2024, global trade growth slowed from 5% to 2.3% annually. U.S.–China tensions and industrial policy realignment are creating new “friend-shoring” blocs — with Canada positioned as a stable intermediary.
| Partner | Share of Canadian Exports 2024 | Change since 2018 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 74% | +1% | Global Affairs Canada |
| EU | 8% | +2% | GAC |
| Asia-Pacific (ex-China) | 7% | +3% | APEC 2025 |
| China | 4% | –4% | IMF DOTS |
Strategic shifts
- The Indo-Pacific Strategy (2023) reoriented diplomacy toward Japan, Korea, and India.
- Non-tariff barriers and supply-chain de-risking are replacing traditional tariffs as policy tools.
- Canada’s mineral, agri-food, and clean-tech exports align well with allied industrial needs.
What leaders can do
- Audit supply-chain exposure to geopolitics. Identify single-country dependencies.
- Diversify export clients within stable democracies.
- Leverage government trade financing (EDC). Scale globally with de-risked capital.
- Develop regional intelligence teams. Track regulatory and sanctions risk dynamically.
Arcus Insight: Canada’s advantage lies in credibility. In a fragmented world, reliability is the new comparative advantage.