The demographic pivot
America’s population is aging faster than expected. The median age has risen from 37.2 in 2010 to 38.8 in 2025, and by 2035 there will be more retirees than children under 18. This shift is reshaping labor-force growth, housing demand, and fiscal sustainability.
Table 1. U.S. Population and Labor Metrics
| Metric | 2010 | 2023 | 2025 (f) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population (M) | 309 | 334 | 338 |
| Median Age | 37.2 | 38.5 | 38.8 |
| Labor-Force Participation (%) | 64.7 | 62.7 | 62.5 |
Sources: Census Bureau; BLS.
Table 2. International Comparison of Dependency Ratios (2025 f)
| Country | Old-Age Dependency Ratio (%) | Median Age |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 30 | 38.8 |
| Germany | 38 | 46 |
| Japan | 52 | 49 |
| Mexico | 16 | 30 |
Source: OECD Demographic Outlook 2025.
Economic consequence
Slower labor-force growth reduces potential GDP to ≈1.7 percent annually. Healthcare and pension outlays will climb above 10 percent of GDP by 2030. Without immigration and productivity gains, trend growth could halve.
Strategic takeaway
Firms must prepare for tight labor markets and aging consumers. Automation and silver-economy products (senior housing, health tech, financial planning) will anchor the next decade of demand.