Monetary innovation meets geopolitics
While over 130 countries explore central-bank digital currencies (CBDCs), the U.S. remains cautious. The dollar still accounts for ≈59 percent of global reserves, but new digital payment rails could erode this dominance if others move faster.
Table 1. Global Reserve Currency Shares (%)
| Currency | 2010 | 2020 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Dollar | 62 | 59 | 59 |
| Euro | 26 | 21 | 20 |
| Yen | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| Yuan | <1 | 3 | 5 |
Sources: IMF COFER; BIS.
Table 2. Digital Payments Penetration (% of Transactions)
| Region | 2019 | 2023 | 2025 (f) |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | 36 | 56 | 60 |
| China | 74 | 83 | 86 |
| EU | 52 | 63 | 68 |
Source: World Bank Global Payments Report.
Outlook
A U.S. CBDC pilot is unlikely before 2027, but stable-coin regulation is advancing. Private digital dollars may coexist with Fed-issued tokens, preserving monetary sovereignty through hybrid designs.
Strategic takeaway
Financial institutions should prepare for tokenized settlement and real-time FX. Corporates with global supply chains must anticipate multi-currency digital liquidity management.