Why more schooling hasn’t meant higher output
Despite record college attainment, U.S. productivity growth remains modest. Skills mismatch—especially in STEM, trades, and data analytics—limits diffusion of technology gains.
Table 1. Educational Attainment (% of 25-64 Population)
| Level | 2000 | 2015 | 2025 (f) |
|---|---|---|---|
| High School or Less | 49 | 39 | 36 |
| Some College / Associate | 27 | 29 | 30 |
| Bachelor’s or Higher | 24 | 32 | 34 |
Sources: Census ACS; NCES.
Table 2. Productivity Growth and Training Spend
| Period | Labor Productivity (% YoY) | Corporate Training Spend ($ B) |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-14 | 1.0 | 160 |
| 2015-19 | 1.2 | 177 |
| 2020-24 | 1.8 | 220 |
Sources: BEA; ATD Corporate Learning Survey.
Outlook
AI and automation demand continuous retraining, not degrees. Apprenticeships and micro-credentials are regaining traction.
Leadership takeaway
Firms that treat education as infrastructure—funding lifelong learning pipelines—will own the next productivity cycle.