From abundance to volatility
Energy trade once assumed global efficiency; now it’s about strategic redundancy. The war in Ukraine and Middle East tensions pushed oil price volatility to its highest level in a decade. Canada, despite resource wealth, faces infrastructure and policy constraints.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2024 | 2025 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net energy exports ($ bn) | 54 | 88 | 85 | NRCan 2025 |
| Pipeline utilization | 92 % | 86 % | 84 % | CER |
| LNG capacity (Mtpa) | — | 14 | 25 (2030 target) | CER |
Global dynamics
- The U.S. is self-sufficient; Europe diversifies to renewables.
- Canada’s challenge is export enablement, not production.
- Energy storage, transmission, and intertie projects are now security imperatives.
What leaders can do
- Map supply-chain dependency beyond borders. Include grid and logistics.
- Invest in flexible energy systems. On-site renewables + gas backup cut exposure.
- Advocate for national corridor policy. Infrastructure coherence improves resilience.
- Track geopolitical energy indices to anticipate input-cost shocks.
Arcus Insight: Energy security equals industrial security. Canada’s economic sovereignty will hinge on transmission, not extraction.