The new geopolitics of food
The war in Ukraine, El Niño droughts, and export restrictions have redefined food as a national security asset. Global grain prices remain 38% above their 2015–2019 average (FAO), and the world will need 60% more food by 2050. Canada — with 7% of global arable land — stands at the crossroads of climate advantage and logistical constraint.
| Indicator | 2019 | 2024 | 2030 (proj.) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global food price index (2015=100) | 100 | 138 | 150 | FAO |
| Canada agri-food exports ($ bn) | 67 | 91 | 120 | AAFC |
| Share of irrigated farmland | 8% | 11% | 14% | StatsCan 2025 |
What’s changing
- Climate migration is shifting global crop zones northward.
- Protein diversification (plant, insect, lab-grown) is scaling commercially.
- Precision ag-tech — drones, AI, and soil sensors — drives yield efficiency 15–25%.
What leaders can do
- Invest in controlled-environment agriculture. Shield yield from climate volatility.
- Adopt traceability platforms. Data provenance is the new food safety.
- Build export corridors with Asia and the EU. Secure logistics beats production surplus.
- Integrate sustainability metrics into farm credit. ESG-driven finance is expanding access.
Arcus Insight: Canada’s next comparative advantage isn’t land — it’s logistics, data, and credibility. Food power is the new soft power.