Critical minerals as the new oil
Global energy transition targets are driving unprecedented demand for lithium, nickel, and rare earths. Canada holds some of the world’s largest undeveloped reserves, but permitting delays—averaging 8 years—threaten competitiveness.
| Commodity | Canada Reserves (kt) | Global Share % | Price Change 2020-25 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium | 1 100 | 2.4 % | +380 % | NRCan 2025 |
| Nickel | 2 900 | 2.8 % | +45 % | IEA |
| Graphite | 1 800 | 3.1 % | +60 % | IEA |
Emerging momentum
Investment commitments exceed $40 billion in Ontario and Quebec battery corridors, led by Stellantis-LG, Volkswagen, and Umicore. Yet Australia and the U.S. still out-approve Canada 3-to-1 on project timelines.
What leaders can do
- Accelerate partnerships with Indigenous governments—early consent shortens permitting by 18 months on average.
- Digital mine operations. Deploy remote sensors for ESG and safety compliance.
- Localize value chains. Anchor refining and cell manufacturing domestically.
- Integrate circular recycling. Extend life-cycle profitability by reclaiming materials.
Arcus Insight: Resource relevance will hinge on processing, not extraction. Canada’s future export isn’t ore—it’s chemistry.