The resilience premium
The pandemic underscored vulnerabilities in lean supply chains. Since 2022, firms have doubled safety inventories and near-shored key inputs. Supply-chain investment now accounts for ~12 percent of U.S. private non-residential investment.
Table 1. Inventory and Investment Indicators
| Metric | 2019 | 2023 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inventory-to-Sales Ratio (%) | 1.35 | 1.45 | 1.48 |
| Private Logistics CapEx ($ B) | 118 | 172 | 190 |
| Port Congestion Index (=100 2019) | 100 | 142 | 108 |
Sources: Census M3; BEA; Freightos.
Table 2. Manufacturing Competitiveness Index (100 = Best)
| Country | 2018 | 2025 (f) |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 91 | 94 |
| Germany | 94 | 92 |
| China | 98 | 95 |
| Mexico | 88 | 90 |
Sources: Deloitte Competitiveness Survey; IMF.
Strategic lessons
Resilience is now a cost-of-entry. Firms investing in digital-supply-chain visibility report 20 percent faster recovery from disruptions. AI-based demand sensing and regional redundancy are core competitive differentiators.
Action item
Make resilience a KPI tied to capital budgeting. Partner with logistics and analytics firms to institutionalize predictive risk management.