A shrinking labour pool meets smarter machines
By 2030, one in four Canadians will be over 65. The working-age population will grow just 0.4% annually, compared with 1.3% in the 2010s. Immigration and automation are the only buffers. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence is reconfiguring the labour market faster than past industrial shifts.
| Indicator | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 (proj.) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workforce participation (15–64) | 79% | 77% | 74% | Statistics Canada |
| Immigration inflow (000s) | 400 | 485 | 500 | IRCC 2025–27 Plan |
| Jobs impacted by AI (% of total) | — | 13% | 29% | OECD AI Impact Study |
What’s changing
- Routine administrative and retail roles are declining, while tech-enabled and interpersonal jobs grow.
- Employers face dual pressure: upskilling for AI tools and retaining scarce human talent.
- Labour shortages persist in health care, skilled trades, and logistics — sectors less automatable.
What leaders can do
- Redesign work around AI. Combine automation with human judgment.
- Build continuous learning ecosystems. Allocate 1–2% of payroll to digital upskilling.
- Adopt age-inclusive HR. Retain older workers via part-time and mentorship models.
- Integrate immigration and automation strategy. Treat them as complementary levers.
Arcus Insight: By 2030, talent scarcity will be Canada’s primary constraint. Firms that master workforce adaptability will command the growth premium.