A gentle landing or something deeper?
After two years of record hiring, the U.S. labour market is easing. Payroll growth averaged 145,000 per month through Q3 2025—half the 2022 pace—but unemployment remains low at 4.2 percent. The key question: is this moderation cyclical or a structural reset driven by technology and demographics?
Table 1. Current Labour Indicators
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (YTD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Labour Force Participation (%) | 62.6 | 62.7 | 62.5 |
| Job Openings (M) | 10.4 | 8.9 | 8.2 |
| Wage Growth (%) | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.1 |
Sources: BLS JOLTS, FRED.
Table 2. Historical Perspective
| Year | Unemployment (%) | Participation (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 9.6 | 64.7 |
| 2019 | 3.7 | 63.3 |
| 2025 | 4.2 | 62.5 |
Source: BLS.
Technology meets demographics
Automation, AI, and early retirements are shifting job composition. Healthcare, logistics, and clean energy add positions even as manufacturing employment plateaus. The tightness of skilled-trade supply suggests structural change, not a cyclical pause.
Implications for leaders
Expect continued hiring friction and higher training costs. Invest in internal reskilling programs and AI-augmented productivity tools to offset scarce labour. A shallow slowdown may help rebalance demand, but structural mismatches will persist through 2026.