Transition economics in focus
Canada’s carbon price rose to $80 per tonne in 2025 and is set to reach $170 by 2030. The result: measurable emissions decline, but also higher industrial input costs.
| Indicator | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 Target | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National carbon price ($/t) | 30 | 80 | 170 | ECCC 2025 |
| GHG emissions (Mt CO₂e) | 730 | 670 | 440 | Environment Canada |
| Industrial power cost (¢/kWh avg.) | 7.8 | 9.4 | — | IEA |
Implications
Carbon costs represent up to 7 % of EBITDA for heavy industry. Yet firms with proactive abatement strategies outperform peers: carbon-efficient producers in steel, cement, and energy report 12–15 % higher valuations.
What leaders can do
- Quantify carbon cost exposure at line-item level in P&L.
- Invest in clean-tech retrofits. ROI typically 3–5 years with federal incentives.
- Monetize offsets. Use carbon markets as revenue, not just compliance.
- Collaborate regionally on carbon-capture clusters to share infrastructure cost.
Arcus Insight: Carbon policy isn’t just constraint — it’s capital allocation discipline. Leaders who treat emissions as financial data will extract competitive advantage.