Health spending meets demographic gravity
Canada’s healthcare expenditure reached 12.5 % of GDP in 2024, up from 10.4 % in 2019. The system now employs 1 in 11 Canadian workers, yet service productivity has fallen. The Conference Board projects a shortfall of 117,000 nurses and 60,000 allied health professionals by 2030.
| Indicator | 2019 | 2024 | 2025 (est.) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health spending (% of GDP) | 10.4 % | 12.5 % | 12.7 % | CIHI 2025 |
| Average ER wait (hours) | 3.3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | CIHI |
| Unfilled nursing positions | 38 000 | 94 000 | 102 000 | StatsCan Labour Survey Q2 2025 |
Structural challenge
Aging demographics and administrative overhead drive costs faster than GDP. Public-sector health employment has grown twice as fast as private employment since 2020, yet outcomes (wait times, throughput) have stagnated.
What leaders can do
- Automate admin workflows. AI triage and scheduling can cut paperwork by 25 %.
- Public-private partnerships (PPPs). Outsource diagnostics and logistics to improve efficiency.
- Measure outcome productivity. Track cost-per-treated-patient, not cost-per-employee.
- Adopt remote monitoring. Digital health reduces re-admissions 10 – 15 %.
Arcus Insight: Productivity reform in health is an economic imperative. Treat it as a technology modernization agenda, not just social policy.