The promise and the paradox
AI-driven automation could add $200 billion to GDP by 2030, but Canada’s adoption rate remains uneven. The top 10% of firms account for 80% of AI spending, leaving SMEs behind.
| Indicator | 2024 | 2030 (proj.) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI adoption (large firms) | 62% | 90% | NRC 2025 |
| AI adoption (SMEs) | 27% | 55% | NRC |
| GDP uplift potential | — | +6–8% | BoC |
Implementation challenges
- Data fragmentation across systems.
- Shortage of AI-literate managers.
- Ethical and regulatory uncertainty slowing pilots.
What leaders can do
- Build AI literacy at leadership level. Strategy follows understanding.
- Integrate AI into workflow design, not as an add-on.
- Measure output gains, not tech spend. Focus on value per employee.
- Collaborate through sectoral AI hubs. Pool investment across supply chains.
Arcus Insight: Productivity is not a macro problem — it’s an adoption problem. The firms that deploy AI operationally, not rhetorically, will shape the recovery curve.