Trade realignment, not retreat
The U.S. share of world goods exports has held near 8 percent since 2020, yet trading patterns have shifted dramatically. Import dependence on China has fallen, replaced by Mexico, Vietnam, and India. Industrial policy now underpins trade strategy, blending national-security aims with domestic job creation.
Table 1. Top U.S. Trading Partners ($ B)
| Partner (2024) | Exports | Imports | Trade Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 365 | 422 | –57 |
| Mexico | 358 | 438 | –80 |
| China | 152 | 429 | –277 |
| EU | 355 | 422 | –67 |
Sources: USTR; BEA International Accounts 2025.
Table 2. Import Share of China vs Mexico (%)
| Year | China Share | Mexico Share |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | 14 |
| 2022 | 17 | 16 |
| 2025 | 13 | 18 |
Source: Census Bureau Trade Stats.
Policy implications
Tariffs and export controls persist even amid easing rhetoric. Supply diversification improves resilience but adds cost and complexity. Businesses must treat trade policy as a strategic variable—not background noise.
Action point
Expand North-American sourcing partnerships and monitor sector-specific tariff risks in clean tech, semiconductors, and EVs.