A new bargaining cycle
U.S. wage growth remains above 4 percent despite slower output growth. High-profile labour actions in automotive, logistics and entertainment reflect rising worker confidence after years of stagnant real earnings. Union membership is rising modestly after decades of decline.
Table 1. Wage and Union Trends
| Metric | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Hourly Earnings Growth (%) | 2.3 | 3.3 | 4.2 |
| Union Membership Rate (%) | 10.7 | 10.1 | 10.5 |
| Labour Productivity Growth (%) | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
Sources: BLS, BEA.
Table 2. International Comparison (2025 f)
| Country | Union Density (%) | Productivity Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 10.5 | 1.7 |
| Canada | 28 | 1.5 |
| Germany | 17 | 1.2 |
| UK | 22 | 0.9 |
Sources: OECD Labour Outlook 2025.
Interpreting the gap
Wage gains outpace productivity, fueling margin pressures and sticky services inflation. Yet tech-driven process automation offers scope for efficiency catch-up by 2026. Union revitalization is increasing collective-bargaining power in key industries without yet re-igniting a 1970s-style wage spiral.
Business response
Executives should link compensation to productivity metrics and train management teams in collaborative bargaining. AI-assisted workflows and data-driven output tracking can reconcile wage growth with efficiency gains, preserving profitability.