Consumer recalibration
Retail sales grew 3.8 % in 2024 but adjusted for inflation, volumes were flat. E-commerce now accounts for 12 % of total sales, up from 4 % pre-pandemic.
| Channel | 2019 Share | 2024 Share | 2025 (est.) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E-commerce | 4 % | 12 % | 13 % | StatsCan 20-10-0008 |
| Grocery inflation (y/y) | +1.8 % | +6.2 % | +4.1 % | CPI Table 18-10-0004 |
| Household savings rate | 3.0 % | 6.4 % | 5.2 % | BoC |
Structural headwinds
- Wage-driven cost inflation compresses margins.
- Labour turnover exceeds 40 % in frontline roles.
- Urban retail foot traffic – 18 % vs 2019.
What leaders can do
- Omnichannel integration. Seamless online-to-store logistics lift revenue 8 – 10 %.
- Data-driven inventory. Predictive analytics reduce stockouts 20 %.
- AI pricing engines. Dynamic models restore 2 – 3 points of gross margin.
- Reinvest in experience. Physical retail must deliver community, not just product.
Arcus Insight: Retail’s future isn’t between online and in-store—it’s about intelligence across both.